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Very Bad News on Climate Front

Not long ago it was our distinct pleasure to transmit a piece of rare good news from the climate front, the discovery by British researchers that microorganisms living in Antarctic waters are taking up a small but significant amount of atmospheric carbon. Now comes the bad news, and unfortunately it's a lot worse--evidence that our oceans' ability to absorb carbon may be dropping sharply.

It's been long known from direct measurements that the seven seas are sopping up a large fraction of the carbon dioxide that humans are pumping into the atmosphere. Scientists have worried that the fraction might drop as atmospheric levels rise and the oceans become saturated. Now comes a report, published this week in Nature and reproduced on the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory's website, saying that even though the oceans are continuing to absorb ever larger quantities of carbon dioxide, the fraction of human emissions they've taken up may have dropped by as much as 10 percent since 2000.

 

"The study reconstructs the accumulation of industrial carbon in the oceans year by year, from 1765 to 2008," explains the Earth Institute’s Kevin Krajick, in a lucid press release. "[Lamont Doherty's Samar] Khatiwala and his colleagues found that uptake rose sharply in the 1950s, as the oceans tried to keep pace with the growth of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. Emissions continued to grow, and by 2000, reached such a pitch that the oceans have since absorbed a declining overall percentage, even though they absorb more each year in absolute tonnage. Today, the oceans hold about 150 billion tons of industrial carbon, the researchers estimate--a third more than in the mid-1990s."

Khatiwala and his co-researchers developed techniques to infer quantities of industrial carbon in the oceans, working backwards from contemporary levels, and sought to identify the locations of its uptake and its sub-sea transport. They estimate that about 40 percent of the carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans is taken up in frigid waters near Antarctica, to be carried northwards by ocean currents.

At the uppermost part of the globe, ironically, waters are under-calcified because of freshwater from melting ice streaming into them. A report in this week's Science (appearing tomorrow, Nov. 20) finds that in 2008, in the words of its abstract, “surface waters were undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a relatively soluble form of calcium carbonate found in plankton and invertebrates.” This effect was expected but is showing up about a decade earlier than predicted. It endangers marine organisms that depend on water saturated with calcium carbonate to build their shells and skeletons.

 

 

South Korea Emerges as Global Player in Nuclear

It's been obvious for a long time that South Korea is the Sweden of Northeast Asia--a modest-size country that is so high-tech-savvy and business-smart that it consistently punches way above its weight. But it still comes as a surprise that a Korean nuclear construction group is entering the ring to slug it out with France's Areva and a GE-Hitachi team for a reactor construction contract in the United Arab Emirates, as the Wall Street Journal reports. The group, led by Korea Electric Power Co., includes Samsung and Hyundai, as well as Japan's Toshiba-Westinghouse. With six reactors under construction, Korea plans to build a dozen more by 2030.

China to Build Wind Turbine Plant in United States

China's A-Power Energy Generation Systems, together with its North American partner the U.S. Renenewable Energy Group, have reportedly announced their intention to build a wind turbine factory in the United States. This is the second such announcement from a Chinese green tech company this week. Earlier, China's Suntech disclosed that it will be the first Chinese solar manufacturer to build a PV factory in the States.

A-Power Energy and U.S. Renewable came under attack a couple of weeks ago when Charles Schumer, the very powerful Democratic Senator from New York, criticized their plan to draw on U.S. stimulus money to build a $1.5 billion wind farm in Texas.

 

 

Green Electrons

The New York Times's Kate Galbraith has a nice article this week, "Shorted," in which she talks about how electricity consumers can find themselves paying more to get green energy only to find that their monthly checks to the utility are financing ads trying to persuade even more customers to send checks to pay for ads to persuade  even more customers to send checks to finance ads to . . . Galbraith cites a report finding that overall in the United States, about a fifth of the money consumers put into green energy programs goes for advertiising and marketing. Some specific cases are much worse than average, of course. A Florida utility saw regulators disallow its program because it was so late delivering promised electrons from renewable sources.

Austin Energy, reports Galbraith, sells the most green power of any utility in the country.  Yet earlier this year the Texas utility was able to sell only 1 percent of a wind-power package it offered customers—an offer that would have cost the average taker an extra $58 per month!

That may be warning sign not just for green electron programs but for wind power too. Early indications are that the average global cost of new wind installations rose rather than fell last year, which could merely indicate excessively fast development, but also suggests that the best wind sites have been cherry-picked and that it will be harder now to deliver wind ever more cheaply. 

China's Suntech to Build Its First U.S. Plant

It's another first for China's top solar company. Last year Suntech moved into the Number Two position among global photovoltaics manufacturers, and according to the analysts at iSupply, it's expected to take the Number One spot this year. That puts it ahead of its closest competitors, Japan's Sharp and Germany's Q Cells. In late August, Suntech announced that it had achieved a record-high conversion efficiencies in multicrystalline silicon PV of 15.6 percent, surpassing the 15.5 percent record set 15 years earlier by Sandia National Labs. Now Suntech has announced it will build a module manufacturing plant in Arizona, the first such factory to be erected by a Chinese company in the United States.

Relying on imported PV material from China, by being located near its markets the plant will economize on module shipping costs while--at the same time--helping the Chinese fend off concerns about export of U.S. jobs to their country.

U.S. Lighting Competition Status

So far there's still just one contestant for the U.S. Energy Department’s L Prize, as DOE announced on Sept. 24: Philips Lighting. The award, authorized by Congress in 2007, seeks to stimulate rapid replacement of two very widely used and very energy-inefficient lamps, the 60-watt incandescent bulb, and the Par 38 halogen. DOE says that if the four-hundred-million-plus 60-W bulbs currently used in the United States were replaced by LED lighting, enough electricity would be saved to illuminate more than seventeen million households, with five million fewer tons of carbon emitted annually.

Philips reportedly has delivered 2000 prototype bulbs to DOE for testing, claiming they meet all contest requirements: the same amount and colors of a 60-W bulb but for 10 watts, a 25,000-hour lifetime, etc. However, Congress has been dragging its feet on actually appropriating the money needed to reward the winner or winners, and no additional contestants have entered or even expressed firm interest in competing.

In a way it may not matter. A company like Philips doesn't really need the $10 million that would go for the 60-W-incandescent replacement or the $5 million for a successor to the PAR 38. And even if there never is another competitor, the award is made to the first company over the line, so Philips can still win fair and squarely. What really matters, points out DOE's Christina Kielich in an e-mail, is that 27 U.S. companies have partnered with the L Prize program to drive the winning product or products out into the marketplace.

“For example," she says, "PG&E and Southern California Edison might elect to do a bill stuffer, rebate, or other incentive to get the product into the hands of millions of electricity customers. The partners are ramping up plans for field testing next spring, so a number of them will have hands-on experience too."

Latest IEA Energy Report

The latest annual report from the International Energy Agency is well worth consulting directly: Though it's received wide coverage in the general press, that coverage tends to be slanted and unbalanced by comparison with the IEA's own executive summery or even just the excellent press release the agency issued with the report.

The IEA sees itself frankly as setting the stage for the Copenhagen climate conference next month, and contrasts what it calls a reference scenario--what's generally called business as usual--with a 450 scenario. In the reference scenario, temperatures could rise by as much as 6 degrees celsius by comparison with pre-industrial times, whereas the scenario in which carbon concentrations in the atmosphere are limited to 450 ppm would keep the cumulative rise to about 2 degrees.

In the reference scenario, global energy demand increases 40 percent in the two decades to 2030 and fossil fuels continue to dominate supply, with 90 percent of the increase in world demand occurring in the fast-industrializing less-developed countries. In the 450 scenario, fossil fuel demand peaks in 2020, and carbon emissions in 2030 are slightly lower than they were in 2007. Improved energy efficiency would account for more than half the carbon abatement in the 450 scenario, but greater reliance on zero-carbon electricity generation also would play a big role: renewables would account for 37 percent of electric power production in 2030, nuclear reactors 18 percent, and clean coal--coal with carbon capture and storage—5 percent.

The IEA estimates that these adjustments would cost the world $10.5 trillion over two decades, but these expenditures would be largely offset by savings in variety of benefits, including public health. "The challenge for climate negotiators [at Copenhagen] is to agree on instruments that will give the right incentives to ensure that the necessary investments are made and on mechanisms to finance those investments,” said IEA Executive Director NobuoTanaka.

 

Alternative Energy Plan for China

An international task force is presenting today, Nov. 12, a proposed low-carbon five-year plan to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development in Beijing. Sir Gordon Conway, co-chairman of the task force, describes some its findings in today's Financial Times. He notes that the Chinese leadership is acutely concerned about the climate problem because of the country's vulnerability to adverse warming effects, its fear of being locked into outdated technologies that will be a liability in a lower-carbon world, and indeed a desire to be global leaders in developing green technology.

The  CCICED task force outlines three carbon-emissions scenarios, and the pessimistic ones are more than a little disconcerting. The business-as-usual scenario has China emitting 13 billion tons of carbon per year in 2050, which is almost twice as much as the whole world is emitting right now. A lower-carbon scenario reduces the country's emissions to 9 billion tons by 2050, which is still almost 30 percent higher than the world's today. A third "enhanced low-carbon scenario" gets China's annual emissions down to 5 billion t/y by mid-century, 30 percent below the present-day world's.

According to Gordon, "the Chinese believe significant reductions can be achieved by decoupling growth from greenhouse gas emissions, as Sweden has done."  Their plan, he says, "is to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 75-85 percent by 2050," by means of industrial restructuring and efficiency gains. The energy mix will become steady greener, with 50 percent of power coming from low-carbon sources by 2030 and all new electricity generation being low-carbon by 2050. But even so, if the enhanced low-carbon scenario is to be achieved, "it will require innovation and technology sharing on a global scale."

It may be startling to hear--even hard to believe--that China's leaders are considering policy changes of this magnitude. But a decade ago, when I was privileged to spend ten days in China looking into the dilemmas posed by coal-fired power generation for an IEEE Spectrum special report (November-December 1999), I was startled by the openness with which Beijing officials were willing to address concerns. I would not have been the first to remark on the country anomalies: a communist government getting set to restructure its electricity system and introduce competition, as if Margaret Thatcher herself were in charge; mid-level officials discussing sensitive and embarrassing issues of pollution and public health in a more relaxed manner than a reporter typically finds in Washington, Paris, or London.

This doesn't mean the Chinese will necessarily succeed in meeting carbon goals, of course. But it would be a mistake to assume they are insincere in setting such goals, or that they are just humoring other countries' negotiators.

A Negative Warming Feedback

A report this fall in Wiley's Global Change Biology reports on a negative feedback from global warming—that is to say, a feedback that makes things better rather than worse. The article in a relatively obscure scientific journal caught the notice of a news service reporter rather belatedly, and that report got my attention later still, but I'm passing it along because so much of the news from the climate front is bad while this—however modest--is a jolly good thing by comparison.

Worst-case-scenario thinking about climate change tends to assume that things will be even dire than models predict because of unrecognized, undiscovered, or underestimated positive feedbacks. There are two notable examples, both big: the feedback from reflective ice in the Arctic and Antarctic flashing to absorptive blue water, as warming takes place; and the feedback from melting permafrost, which could release vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere. (Radiative absorption was underestimated in early climate models, and methane release is hard to predict in current ones.) 

But in a September issue of Global Change Biology, members of the British Antarctic Survey report their discovery that as Antarctic ice has melted, large blooms of marine plants called phytoplankton have been flourishing in waters exposed. The phytoplankton have the potential to absorb roughly 3.5 million metric tons of carbon per year, roughly equivalent to the carbon "sink" represented by tropical rain forest covering 6-17,000 hectares. Lead author Lloyd Peck conceded that this is a small number when compared with the 7 billion tons of carbon ejected by human activity into the atmosphere each year. But he said that as more Antarctic ice melts, the new phytoplankton blooms "have the potential to be a significant biological sink for carbon." 

France's Nuclear Reputation Takes More Hits

The French nuclear industry is accustomed to getting high marks from critical observers, whether trade journalists, business school scholars, or historians like Gabrielle Hecht, author of The Radiance of France. The country’s standardized method of designing and building reactors, its national commitment to this one technology in particular, and the country's well-known traditions of scientific management and rational administration have all come in for some of the credit. But the French industry’s  lustrous reputation has had a tarnishing of late, with a variety of developments and allegations, starting with critical comments by a French expert visiting the United States.

Even as the national French utility EDF was completing a deal with Maryland’s Constellation, to consolidate a marketing foothold in the United States, there came the news on Nov. 2 that French, British and Finnish regulators had told country’s nuclear contractor Areva to adopt additional safety measures for its EPR reactor: Specifically, the regulators complained that emergency control systems are not sufficiently distinct from routine control systems. The top French regulator said there is "no certainty it will be possible to prove anacceptable level of safety based on the current [EPR] architecture." 

The news of EPR safety concerns coincided with the disclosure that 19 of France's 58 reactors are off-line for maintenance and refueling. French Prime Minister Francois Fillon publicly rebuked the country's national utility EDF for allowing this situation to develop, and leaving the country in a position where it would have to import electricity during the winter for the second year running.  Naturally the combined news sent Areva's stock into a small slide.

To keep things in perspective, Areva and EDF are among the few nuclear players in the world that are actually building nuclear power plants and which have concrete plans to build more. Areva is well advanced with construction of  EPR reactors in France and Finland, though both projects are rather badly behind schedule, and it has started to build a pair in China. It has rather specific plans to build four in England and two more in China, and somewhat vaguer hopes of building six in India and four in the United States.

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