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Copenhagen's Rich-Poor Rift

Yesterday's threatened walkout by the so-called Group of 77 countries was unsurprising and yet surprising. From the git-go, the fate of the Copenhagen climate conference obviously was going to depend on whether the gap dividing the United States from the most rapidly developing poor countries--China and India, notably--could be bridged, They want sharp emissions cuts by rich countries and a lot of financial assistance to promote green technologies, and they refuse to commit to emissions reductions targets, which the United States insists on.

What yesterday's eruption showed is that it's not by any means just China and India; it's the whole of the world's South.

The Group of 77, founded in the 1960s to advance the global South's economic agenda, played a highly vocal role in world politics in the 1960 and 1970s. In recent decades, it has hardly been heard from, however, though its membership has continued to grow, to 130. It now includes all of Latin America except Mexico, almost all of Africa, the South Asian countries including the big emitters China, India, and Indonesia, and most of the MIddle East.

How much will it take for the rich countries to satisfy the concerns of the poor? Perhaps more than most U.S. citizens will ever be able to fathom and accept. Yesterday, coincidentally, a daily conference newspaper published by the Copenhagen Post ran an article by Indian environmentalist Sunita Narain. Here's some of what she had to say: “The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. This was the basis of the climate agreement the world reached in the first Earth Summit in 1992. This was the basis of the Kyoto Protocol.…But the world has never been serious about this agreement.…Industrialized countries are responsible for seven out of every 10 tons of carbon dioxide emitted in the atmosphere from the start of the industrial revolution.…Between 1980 and 2005, the total emissions of the United States were almost double that of China and more than seven times that of India. In per capita terms such injustice is even more unacceptable, indeed immoral.”



Handicapping Copenhagen

A large demonstration in downtown Copenhagen on Saturday--and the determined efficiency with which police rounded up and arrested a couple of hundred allgedly unruly activists--got most of the headlines over the weekend. Negotiators reportedly worked hard through the weekend, however, trying to narrow differences on a draft protocol before heads of state arrive later in the week for some last-minute head-bashing.

To follow developments closely in real time, the most useful Twitter feed that I've located so far is one posted and culled by France's Le Monde: you can ignore the introductory French at the top and go straight to the mostly English-language entry list.

For context, the Wall Street Journal has an excellent synoposis of who wants what at Copenhagen, while the Financial Times has pulled toghther data summarizing 2005 greenhouse gas emissions for key countries and players and reduction pledges they have made so far. The online version of the FT's Reducing Carbon Emissions: Government Pledges is somewhat dated but still worth consulting because it's so compact and nicely interactive. Some developments not enumerated in the current versions: Brazil's promise to get emissions down 36-39 percent by 2020, largely by means of reduced Amazon deforestation; China's plege to trim the nation's carbon intensity--CO2 per unit GDP--40-45 percent by 2020; the European Union's offer to hike its planned 2020 cut to 30 percent from 20 percent if other critical parties such as the United States, India, and China do enough.

Speaking of interactivity, a newly formed group called Climate Interactive has posted a thermometer-like climate scoreboard that tells you how Copenhagen negotiators are doing in terms of business-as-usual and carbon-reduction scenarios. (Current reading: the proposals on the table today will get the world's increase in temperature between now and 2100 down to only 3.9 degrees Celsisus from 4.8 degrees C, business-as-usual; the stated goal is to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees C.) For more qualitative measures of success, go to IEEE Spectrum’s What to Expect from Copenhagen Confab.

The Associated Press's Michael von Bülow did a nice job of summarizing where things stood in Copenhagen as weekend negotiations began. Stay tuned here for this week's developments.


Large California Geothermal Project Bites Dust

AltaRock Energy informed the U.S. Department of Energy on Friday, Dec. 11, that it is abandoning its major geothermal demonstration project at The Geysers, north of San Francisco. It already had disclosed in September that it was finding drilling into deep rock more difficult than expected, and last summer the company reacted defensively to reports that a similar project near Basel, Switzerland, had induced earthquakes. On Dec. 10, the day before the California announcement came the disclosure that the Basel project was being ditched. The technical leader of that project, meanwhile, faces judicial charges in Switzerland that he had proceeded with the drilling technique knowing of possible earthquake damage.

The techniques being developing in Switzerland and California involve fracturing bedrock, so that water can be circulated through the fissures to generate steam. AltaRock had obtained about $6 million from DOE for The Geysers project, and around $30 million venture capital from investors such as Google, Khosla Ventures, and Kleiner Perkins, according to a New York Times report.

These are not the only major green energy projects to go under in recent months. Earlier in the fall TRU Energy, a subsidiary of CLP in Hong Kong, announced it was writing off its whole investment in Solar Systems'  154-megawatt solar project in Mildura, Australia.  To be built at an estimated cost of 420 million Australian dollars, the installation was to consist of curved mirrors that would track the sun and focus light on high-efficiency photovoltaic material, to generate electricity. With a projected capacity factor of 20 percent, it would have produced 270,000 MWh of electricity per year, enough for about 45,000 homes.

The PV concentrator plant was not the only innovative solar project to be slated for Mildura, by the way. A town of about 30,000 people in norhwestern Victoria, with a semi-arid Mediterranean climate, Mildura may yet be home to a proposed solar tower, in which the upward convection of air would drive a turbine.

Or will that too turn out to be an exciting green energy idea that just doesn't quite cut it technically or economically?




IEEE-USA Blogs from Copenhagen

You can read about the action in and around the global climate conference, plus look at some nice photos being posted in real time, if you log into Congressional Fellow Thomas Lee's blogsite. Lee, who's been working in Washington for IEEE-USA, the volunteer-driven policy arm of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, has been writing about the challenges of covering such a huge, amorphous and fast-moving event, as well as the event itself. A recent post discusses the flap over a leaked "Danish draft" treaty that, according to England's left-leaning Guardian, would give developing countries a raw deal.

Cash for Caulkers

Inexplicably, President Obama prefers venture capitalist John Doerr's "cash for caulkers" to Bill Sweet's cash for (coal) clunkers, at least so far. In  a jobs speech delivered yesterday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Obama said he might introduce a special home retrofit program, to supplement subsidies in the stimulus bill and make it still easier and cheaper for homeowners to make dwellings more energy-efficient and conserving. The Daily Show's John Stewart poked fun at him Monday night for saying he didn't want to "tip his hand," as if he were giving away a secret. Obama has mentioned the idea repeatedly all year, as Stewart observed, and the concept has got analytic attention in the press and on the air.

New R&D Funding for Batteries, Carbon Capture, and Fuels from CO2

The Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA-E) is making available $100 million to support research on batteries for longer-range hybrid and electric cars, novel materials and processes for carbon capture from coal combustion, and what it somewhat misleadingly calls “electrofuels.” That third category refers to “the utilization of metabolic engineering and synthetic biological approaches for the efficient conversion of carbon dioxide to liquid transportation fuels.”

Utility Scale Photovoltaics

It’s long been my assumption that if PV ever achieves true economic competitiveness, it will be in a distributed mode--mounted on roofs or walls--where it saves users the cost of having electricity delivered to them. However, recent conversations with executives at two top players in the industry are making me wonder. There's been a "dramatic change in the attitude of utilities" toward centrally generated photovoltaic electricity, says Julie Blunden, vice president for public policy and communications with Sunpower. Mark Pinto, chief technology officer and senior vice president with Applied Materials, basically agrees with Blunden that a variety of factors associated with production scale and system costs are shifting interest markedly in favor of PV powerplants.

Applied Materials, a heavyweight supplier of tool-making equipment in the semiconductor and flat panel display industries, has emerged in the last five years as a major supplier to PV manufacturers as well. Its customers include Sunpower, which at present is the top U.S. photovoltaics maker, though it manufacturers all its cells in Philippines with a second plant soon to come in Malaysia. The Sunpower modules, which work to best effect when installed on the ground with trackers that keep them oriented to the sun, are currently assembled in China and Mexico, and soon will be made in the United States and Europe as well.

Both companies have vantage points that give them perspective and insight into broad solar industry developments.

Blunden says that Sunpower began to get a lot of visibility with construction of PV power plants in Europe during 2007 and 2008; combined installations totaled about 200 MW. In 2008, it won a contract to build a 250 MW plant—the California Valley Solar Ranch—for PG&E, following adoption by California of a Renewable Portfolio Standard. Earlier this year, when President Obama wanted to use a PV farm as the backdrop for some important technology policy announcements, it was a 25-MW plant that Sunpower had just built for Florida Power and Light than his aides picked for the photo-op.

Applied Materials, meanwhile, has made a nice business out of offering complete sets of tool-making equipment to aspiring makers of thin-film silicon sheets, in effect just about everything that's needed in the manufacturing process. Chris Eberspacher, CTO of the company's solar business group, describes what they provide as a "complete engineering and operations package,” which they encourage their clients to buy in a standardized form, though "alas, nobody does." Eberspacher and his colleagues have been sighing all the way to the bank. So far they have sold 15 of their SunFabs, at up to $200 million a pop, in Europe and Asia.

Though SunFab tools make films from a combination of amorphous and nanocrystalline silicon, the bigger part of Applied Materials' solar business is still tool-making geared to the traditional silicon wafer. But if interest is indeed shifting to central generation, the thin-film business seems destined to grow. Even though thin films generally have somewhat lower efficiencies than standard silicon, if they can be produced more cheaply and installed over larger areas at reasonable cost, then they can come out well ahead of the game.

According to Sunpower's Blunden, many kinds of economies have been driving down the costs of large-scale solar installations, starting with the ability of the industry--only recently acquired--to deliver large plants in just a year  or two. Not so long ago, she says, you couldn't get financing for a solar farm because banks had no idea how to evaluate them; now they do.

Ground-mounted systems, she observes, can be arranged to greater advantage than typically found in an existing home or commercial building. She says a PV system's capacity factor--the percentage of the time it's making as much electricity as it theoretically can—is perhaps 18 percent for a rooftop system but up to 30 percent for a ground-based system with trackers.

Then there are the usual economies of scale, including non-PV components, installation, and maintenance. To take the simplest case, says CTO Pinto of Applied Materials, if you want to put a module on your roof you have to bring in a special truck, with a driver and perhaps second technician. But that same truck and team could be out installing an entire farm at a pretty good clip, with no extra help. As PV materials costs are coming down below 20 cents per watt, Pinto observes sharply, the significance of peripheral costs like installation grows proportionately.

The European Union's Energy Institute recently predicted that photovoltaics will attain grid parity--competitiveness with other standard sources of electricity--by 2020. Eberspacher and Pinto consider that a reasonable guess. I remain skeptical, mainly because solar costs as measured by dollar per installed watt--the only metric I trust at this stage of the game--have not been coming down all that dramatically.

But hey, Applied Materials is the world's top supplier of tool-making equipment for integrated circuits, very likely the top supplier of equipment for flat panels, and is well on its way to being just as big in photovoltaics. I suppose it's remotely conceivable than they might be right and I may be wrong.

Carolina Energy Company to Shutter Coal Plants

Progress Energy announced yesterday, Dec. 1,  that it will close four coal-burning electric power plants in North Carolina, rather than to go to the expense of  equipping them with flue-gas desulfurization scrubbers. The decision was taken in response to a ruling of state regulators who ordered the company to prepare retirement plans for the plants, which have a combined generating capacity of 1,485 MW, unless it outfitted them with scrubbers. The four plants represent about 30 percent of Progress's North Carolina coal-generating capacity; it has cost the company about $2 billion to install pollution control equipment on the remaining plants, which have a combined capacity of 3,542 MW. That translates to a cost of about 50 U.S. cents per watt.

During the last few years, as an anti-coal movement has taken root in the United States and as corporate executives and shareholders have become more and more worried about the prospect of a penalty being put on carbon emissions, many dozens of coal generating projects have been cancelled across the country. But this week's decision by Progress Energy may represent the first major case of existing coal plants being decommissioned rather than improved.

“Coal-fueled generation will continue to be vital to our ability to meet customer electricity needs,” said Lloyd Yates, president and CEO of Progress Energy Carolinas, in the corporate press release. “But as environmental regulations continue to change, and as even more significant rule changes appear likely in the near future, the costs of retrofitting and operating these plants will increase dramatically. We believe this is the right decision for our customers, our state and our company.”

Partly to replace the coal generation, Progress plans to build a 950 MW natural gas fired plant in Wayne County, and a gas plant of about 600 MW near Wilmington. It's also looking at the possibility of obtaining about 150 MW from biomass such as wood waste, biomass being the states most plentiful renewable resource, according to the company.

Yesterday's announcement “sends a clear signal that coal is not the future,” the Environmental Defense Fund's Michael Regan told the Wilmington Star News. “Cleaner energy is part of the future,” said Reagan, who is EDF's climate and air policy director for the U.S. Southeast.

The announcement also sends a clear signal that natural gas is coming back, with estimated reserves way up and, and of wind's, possibly, starting to run into some cost limits. But is it also a signal that many energy companies will opt to shutter dirty coal plants, in anticipation of Federal carbon regulation? Not necessarily. The CEO of Progress Energy Carolinas explained to the New York Times that by closing the plants now, the company may be unable to get credit for reduced carbon emissions later, when a cap and trade system is introduced, and may therefore have to do even more to cut emissions.



Suppression of Climate Dissent

The disclosure of messages among climate scientists has provided evidence, as the Wall Street Journal put it in an editorial, of "coordinated efforts by leading climatologists to fit the data to their conclusions while attempting to silence and discredit their critics." In the press, climate skeptics like James Delingpole of England's Telegraph have reacted with glee. Even those normally sympathetic to the mainstream climate scientists like Andrew Revkin of the New York Times concede that the messages raise questions about the quality of some research and the behavior of specific scientists.

Given that hundreds of messages and documents are at issue, I leave it to the reader to assess each point on its merits. For now let me just say this. Having covered energy and climate for close to twenty years, I know that climate scientists seeking to engage and arouse the public have sometimes tried to marginalize those who do not go along with the mainstream view of what the situation requires. For example, without naming names, there was a pioneering climate modeler who was discouraged from testifying to Congress because he did not agree that global warming was necessarily "dangerous." When I was profiling him, a long-time colleague of his tried to dissuade me from mentioning his non-alarmist view of things--advice that I naturally ignored.

The problem as I see it is simple. Scientists and technologists have a habit of thinking that certain policies follow logically and inescapably--that is to say scientifically--from their scientific findings. But policy choices always involve economic trade-offs, competing interests, and personal values. Scientists and policy analysts clarify those trade-offs, but when it comes to actually making a choice, the technologist is no different from every other citizen. It's this mistaken notion that a certain policy must follow from a finding that prompts some scientists to discourage dissent and filter out the noise from findings so as to "not confuse the public."

Climate skeptics, let it be said, often fall prey to a mirror-image temptation. Thinking too that policy must follow from science, they feel called upon to refute the science because they don't like the direction policy recommendations are headed. Rather than debate and rebut specific policy recommendations, which are always open to challenge, they try to chip away at the foundations of climate science, which in fact are rock-solid.



Tata and Berkeley Frigid to MDI's Air Cars

Indian carmaker Tata Motors is voicing concerns about the range and durability of the compressed-air powered minicar technology critically analyzed in IEEE Spectrum this month (see "Deflating the Air Car"). Tata Motors invested in French air car developer Motor Development International (MDI) in early 2007, but yesterday Mumbai-based news source DNA reported that Tata sees ongoing issues with MDI's technology.

Tata already sells vehicles that run on gasoline, compressed natural gas, and liquid petroleum gas and is launching a battery-powered sedan in Europe. However, Tata Motors' vice-president for engineering systems S Ravishankar apparently told DNA Money that the company's efforts to add air-powered cars to its fleet are hung up by range limitations:

"Air is not a fuel, it is just an energy carrier. So a tank full of air does not have the same energy as a tank full of CNG. Any vehicle using only compressed air to run would face problems of range."

When asked whether this means that "the 'Air Car' project off?," Ravishankar declined to comment. Instead, Ravishankar added that excessive cooling of the air car's pneumatic engine is also presenting a challenge.

Spectrum's analysis of the thermodynamics of MDI's AirPod concluded that the minicar is not energy efficient relative to electric vehicles, and unlikely to deliver on its promised 200-kilometer-plus range. New York Times columnist Jim Motavalli pour further cold water on pneumatic propulsion last week, reporting on a UC Berkeley report on the poor efficiency of pneumatic vehicles.

MDI, for its part, continues to talk up the AirPod's imminent commercialization, and has forged what may be the firm's first university partnership since an unsatisfying collaboration with France's prestigious École des Mines de Paris (which deflated ambitious range claims for an early version of MDI's technology). Switzerland's ArcInfo reports this week that an MDI partner in Reconvilier will commence manufacturing of the AirPod "from March" and the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne will fund a doctoral student to help boost the efficiency of MDI's air compressor stations.

The vapor thickens!

Image caption: Air France and KLM agreed to test a dozen AirPods starting in Spring 2009 but still await delivery from MDI.


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