Countdown to the end

PHOTO DIELECTRIC COMMUNICATIONS

By mid-2005, terrestrial digital television service was supposed to be commonplace—not just in the United States, where the government had hoped to pull the plug on analog broadcast television at the end of 2006, but around the world.

Today, however, people in barely 1 percent of the world's more than 1 billion television-owning homes can watch digital television over the air. Far more, but by no means a majority, pay to receive digital signals via cable or satellite, so some form of digital television is seen in about 280 million households.

The pace of digital broadcast television's acceptance varies. In the United Kingdom, for example, more than 20 percent of 25 million TV-viewing households can watch terrestrial digital broadcasts on at least one TV set. In Japan, where digital broadcasts began in December 2003, around 5 million digital receivers have been shipped to stores, and consumers are installing them in that country's 40 million-plus households with TVs.

Although the United States launched terrestrial digital broadcasts early, in 1998, less than 5 percent of its 103 million households were equipped to receive them at the end of last year. But the technology is gaining momentum, thanks in large part to government mandates for set design: TVs in nearly 15 percent of U.S. households will handle digital broadcasts by the end of 2005, and those in nearly 40 percent by the end of 2006, according to the Consumer Electronics Association, in Arlington, Va., which represents manufacturers.

The nation will fall far short, however, of its government's eight-year target for turning off analog broadcasts—which was based on a goal of at least 85 percent of consumers' being able to watch digital broadcasts in their homes.

So what went wrong?

First, the plans made in 1998, when digital television was introduced in the United States, were unrealistic. In 1961, eight years after the standard for color television was set, only 1 percent of households owned color TVs. The penetration rate for digital TV would have had to far surpass that of any other new mass-market technology to come close to the 85 percent goal in the eight years from 1998 to 2006.

Second, the Federal Communications Commission initially set up an implementation schedule only for broadcast TV stations, reasoning that availability of digital broadcasts alone would be enough to bring along TV manufacturers, cable system operators, and consumers. That did not happen, at least in part because about 65 percent of the U.S. public receives TV programming via cable; the majority of viewers would be unaffected by changes in over-the-air broadcasting.

Also, in its first few years, digital television was plagued by uncertainty that left consumers wary about switching. Some wondered about the solidity of the digital TV technical broadcast standard, adopted in 1996. Many were also confused about digital TV products and their performance and capabilities; inconsistent availability of digital programming; and the number of stations on the air. Also, digital sets were expensive. Today, most of the issues have been resolved or at least minimized.

The four major commercial U.S. networks now broadcast almost all prime-time programs, as well as major sports and other high-profile events, in high definition. For drama, movies, and sports, production in high definition is the norm.

Also, competition has cut the cost of digital TV—high-definition sets with built-in digital tuners sell for less than US $1000, although prices quickly climb for large screen sizes or flat-panel displays. Digital converters for analog TV sets, however, are still somewhat pricey, running $200 and up, although prices are expected to fall to under $100 in the next few years.

Another sign of the coming of digital television is that today more than 1500 broadcast digital-TV stations are on the air. Nearly the entire U.S. population lives in markets with at least one digital broadcast signal available, and more than 90 percent live in areas with five or more such signals.

Meanwhile, the FCC's 2002 mandate that TV makers incorporate digital broadcast tuners in all new sets is having its effect. The FCC requirement started with the largest screens. As of 1 July 2005, all sets for sale in the United States with screen diagonals of at least 36 inches must have built-in digital tuners. By July 2007, all sets with screen diagonals of at least 13 inches must be digitally compatible.

In late 2003, the FCC set a technical standard for cable transmission of digital TV signals and defined what constitutes a digital cable-ready TV set—a major milestone. To be designated Digital Cable Ready, a set must include a terrestrial-broadcast digital tuner, as well as a slot for a smart card. The subscriber's cable service provides the card, which is used in place of a set-top box to descramble the cable signal. With the card alone, however, cable-ready digital television sets can receive only basic and premium program channels; features such as video on demand require the set-top box.

Satellite TV service, digital since its inception, is also helping develop an audience for digital broadcast programs. And a cluster of consumer electronics innovations are combining to stoke interest. One of the most prominent, flat-screen displays—luxury items a few years ago—are now becoming ubiquitous. They draw consumers to the larger screen sizes, which show off digital television's high-definition capabilities without eating up all the floor space in a living room.

Widespread popularity of DVDs has also had an effect. Although not yet equal to high-definition television in resolution, a DVD viewed on a high-definition digital set is noticeably clearer than one viewed on its analog counterpart. Also, DVDs include content that fits the wide-screen format of high-definition TV well, and the new sets can produce full 5.1-channel surround sound.

More recently, the availability of high-definition personal video recorders became a factor. And high-definition DVD players, due in stores before the year's end, could provide yet another sales boost. Add a comprehensive market-promotion plan aimed at consumers, and terrestrial digital TV broadcast service could be like a rolling snowball that will grow rapidly in the years ahead, bringing with it compelling and innovative digital services and an end to analog television.

About the Author

Lynn Claudy is senior vice president of science and technology for the National Association of Broadcasters, in Washington, D.C. The NAB is the leading trade association for commercial radio and TV broadcast stations in the United States.