Once upon a time, nuclear power was going to make
electricity "too cheap to meter." Today, the Internet is
supposed to do the same thing for telephone calls.
This time it may be true.
Voice over Internet Protocol, or VoIP, is one of the
fastest-growing, and most misunderstood, technologies in
the world at the moment. Confusion, outdated beliefs,
and urban mythology reign over such simple issues as how
it works, the quality of the calls, and, of course, how
much it costs—VoIP calls are not free now, and they
never will be. As things are shaping up, though, they're
so cheap that carriers are letting customers make all
the calls they want for a single monthly fee, typically
US $25 to $35.
Simply put, VoIP means doing voice communications
over the same networks that we rely on for data
communications—the local networks that connect to our
computers and the Internet that links them all together.
If you've ever bought a prepaid phone card, especially
one for international calling, you've probably already
dialed into a VoIP system without knowing it. By
crossing national borders as cheap Internet packets,
instead of moving through an expensive switched circuit,
an international VoIP call, while still billed per
minute, costs pennies, not dimes or quarters.
In fact, those low costs, and the efficiencies for
carriers of maintaining a single, unified
telecommunications network, guarantee that all telephony
will eventually be done over IP. Essentially everyone in
the telecommunications industry agrees on that.
So, not surprisingly, there's a cattle stampede of
providers: in North America alone, some 400 VoIP
services are now competing for residential customers,
says William Cheek, an analyst at Parks Associates, in
Dallas.
Even traditional local telephone companies are part
of the herd. In the United States, Verizon
Communications Inc., based in New York City, has been
signing up subscribers since last July; rival Qwest
Communications International Inc., in Denver, since
August. SBC Communications Inc., in San Antonio, another
regional giant, announced last fall that it would launch
a VoIP service in early 2005. "The market is saturated
with service providers already," Cheek says. And many
corporations, lured by the promise of cutting their
telephony expenses by half or more, are turning to
VoIP—at least for their internal communications.
The two largest call-anyone VoIP providers in the
United States are each signing up about a thousand new
customers a day—a rate that compares favorably with
other quickly adopted technologies, such as the CD
player, satellite television, and high-speed Internet.
One of these leaders is Vonage Holdings Corp., in
Edison, N.J., a stand-alone VoIP company whose service
runs over a household's existing broadband line. The
other is Cablevision Systems Corp., a Bethpage, N.Y.,
large regional cable TV provider, which began its VoIP
service in November 2003.
Between them, as of January, Vonage and Cablevision
had a little more than half of the 1 million U.S.
households using VoIP. Of course, that's just a tiny
fraction of the total number of homes with telephone
service in the United States—about 106 million (out of
109 million households in all).
Still, the momentum is clearly in favor of VoIP.
According to the Telecommunications Industry
Association, in Arlington, Va., at some point in 2006,
more than half of all the new private branch exchanges
being installed will be IP based. And the number of
residential VoIP subscribers will rise 12-fold, to about
12 million, by 2009, industry analysts project. By that
time, total U.S. revenue for business and residential
VoIP products and services will be nearly $21 billion,
up from $2.5 billion today, says Aaron Nutt, an analyst
at Atlantic-ACM, a unit of Boston-based ACM Group Inc.,
which specializes in telecommunications consulting and
market research.