PHOTO: RANDI SILBERMAN
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When accused of inconsistency, the British economist
John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have responded, “When
the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
It’s a fallback position for every politician,
publicist, and pundit, says Senior Editor Philip E. Ross
[above], who now invokes it to explain his own change of
position on Nantero. He’s called the Woburn, Mass.,
company a winner three times over five years, for three
magazines, including this one. This month, though, he
places it in the unfortunate second half of IEEE
Spectrum’s “Winners
and Losers” list.
In 2002, writing in Red Herring magazine, Ross
extolled Nantero’s idea of using carbon nanotubes to
store data permanently, as flash memory does, while
packing in far more data and accessing it far faster. He
quoted the company as saying it would have a commercial
prototype within “one to two years.” Sure, Ross also
quoted skeptics, but only in the “to be sure” paragraph
that generally follows a long passage arguing in the
opposing direction.
Two years later, in another science magazine, Ross
lauded Nantero for finally setting up a production line
for its nanotube chip. He also wrote up the company at
greater length for Spectrum [see “10 Tech
Companies for the Next 10 Years,” November
2004], saying that “these little tubes could turn out to
be very big indeed.”
He notes that Nantero’s technology still seems as
ingenious as it ever did. Rather than specify the
structure and placement of particular tubes—a problem
nobody has come close to solving—the company’s device
averages the electronic properties of many tubes.
So, what change does Ross cite to justify his change
of mind? “The passage of time,” he responds. “It has
been six years since Nantero started saying its chip
would be out in just another year or two, and I just
don’t believe it anymore.”