The high PV
tariff, which ensures that Solarpark's equity
investors will clear about ¤5 million per year, is under
fire from unexpected quarters—environmentalists, who
bemoan the loss of precious green space, and Germany's
leading renewable energy advocate, who fears that the
money is enriching foreign competition.
"I think that the mechanism of feed-in tariffs, that
showed its merits in the German success story in wind
technology, should not have been identically copied for
PV," says Gerd Eisenbeiss, architect of Germany's
feed-in tariff strategy in the late 1980s. Eisenbeiss,
who now oversees about 40 percent of all German public
energy research from his post as a managing director at
Forschungszentrum Jülich, would prefer direct government
grants to German manufacturers for innovative projects
instead of a system that rewards native and foreign
entities alike.
Other observers contend that such generous financial
support encourages companies to foist immature
technology on unsuspecting consumers. "With the right
subsidies, you could give away 2-carat diamonds in
cereal boxes," says Howard C. Hayden, emeritus professor
of physics at the University of Connecticut, in Storrs,
and author of The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won't
Run the World (Vales Lake Publishing, 2001). "The upshot
is that the productive Germans, the ones who are using
electricity for something useful, are subsidizing these
solar toys."
Expensive toys they are. PVs are by far the priciest
power source per kilowatt to install, according to
estimates compiled by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. EIA numbers for 2002, the last year for
which they are available, show that the cost to build a
solar PV plant (minus 10 percent to account for a U.S.
investment tax credit for solar power) is a whopping
$3915/kW—nearly 10 times that of a conventional,
gas-fired combustion turbine. The capital outlay for PV
is more expensive, and so, too, of course, is the
output: PV power costs three to five times as much per
watthour as nuclear, gas, oil, or coal generation. And a
PV plant's capacity factor—the ratio of the total
electricity that a plant produces per year to the total
potential electricity that would be produced if the
plant operated at 100 percent during every hour of the
year—is anywhere from 12 to 30 percent. That pales in
comparison to the 84 percent-plus capacity factor of the
19 nuclear plants Germany wants to replace.
Despite the higher costs and lower output of PV
power, Germans support their government's policies: in a
recent poll, 58 percent said they would not go back to
relying on nuclear energy and would instead pay more for
renewable sources. To ensure the ready availability of
such resources, the German government ostensibly aims to
create a thriving indigenous renewable energy industry.
The Association of the German Solar Industry (known as
the UVS), in Berlin, estimates that last year the
country's PV industry generated ¤1 billion in revenue
and created 5000 jobs.
But the real point of German government support for
PVs is actually far more ambitious. The ultimate goal,
say Solarpark stakeholders, is to foster the growth of a
global PV industry and to count on economies of scale to
bring the price of PV down to levels that even
developing countries can afford. And if that means
goosing demand by taking advantage of Germany's feed-in
tariffs to pay a U.S. company to build a solar power
station in soggy, overcast central Europe, then so be
it.
"Every doubling of shipments in our industry has
resulted in a 20 percent decrease in cost," says
PowerLight's executive vice president Howard Wenger.
Such cost decreases will benefit K&S Consulting's
Third World clients, like the parliament of the
Casamance region in the Republic of Senegal, in West
Africa, which has commissioned a 10-MW-peak PV plant.
"We produce in Senegal 80 percent more energy than in
Bavaria," says Jochen Kleimaier, managing director of
K&S Consulting Group. The 10-MW-peak Casamance
project will provide the region with 35 percent of its
power needs. Similar projects under development could
over time supply the entire country, which basks in more
than 3000 hours of sunlight per year, with one-third of
its 1 gigawatthour-per-year requirement.
Kleimaier believes all developed countries have a
responsibility to nurture new energy systems at home and
to help developing countries move up the economic
ladder. This should be done without consuming massive
amounts of greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels or
building nuclear power plants in unstable regions of the
world.
"We have to find a way to produce energy in Africa,
in China, in India," says Kleimaier. "We figure Senegal
is a very good country to develop those kind of
projects."
And while the subsidies last, Bavaria is also a very
good place to install PV plants. Just don't expect them
to make a dent in German energy demand. A plant like
Solarpark that is projected to put 10 GWh/year onto the
grid will supply less than 0.002 percent of the
country's needs. It is merely, in Smil's words, "a spit
in the ocean."