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Wo die Atomare Wildschweine Wandern

Given a choice between nuclear power and being pure green, Germans much prefer greenliness to radiation risks. But given the choice between actually ingesting radioactive materials and having to give up their beloved boar sausage, evidently Germans would rather go nuclear.

Ultimately it's not such a funny story, despite the humorous spin sometimes put on it. Southern Germany, where the boar population has been soaring (for reasons that go beyond the scope of this post), happens to have been the part of the country most affected by Chernobyl fallout. It turns out that radioactive materials tend to concentrate in truffles and mushrooms, rather the way certain pollutants concentrate in shellfish. Unfortunately just those delicacies are what the Bavarian wild pig most loves, and when meat from the most proficient of the truffle sniffers ends up in Wurst, there's a problem for those who can't live without their boar sausage.

Last year, the German government paid hunters about a half million dollars to compensate them for boar meat deemed too radioactive to sell. But of course less radioactive sausage--wait a minute? wasn't somebody just saying there's no safe level of radioactivity?--is still ending up on dinner plates.

POSTSCRIPT, Aug. 6 (Hiroshima Day): The story is getting unfunnier all the time. Russian environmental officials warned yesterday that radiation also is concentrated in some of the forests that are getting consumed by the wildfires sweeping much of the country's western regions, as temperatures have soared to unheard-of highs. Some of that released radiation will be blown into Europe. It's always amusing to poke fun at Germans' love affair with the boar and their complex attitudes about greenliness, but really this is no laughing matter.

GE versus Coulomb in EV Charging

A previous post reporting the rollout of GE's WattStation network for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle charging raised two questions concerning its competitive status versus Coulomb's ChargePoint network: GE's apparent claim that its stations will offer faster charging; and its general competitive position, given that Coulomb Technologies appears to have got the jump.

Regarding the first question, GE says it only meant that  Level 2 charging at 220 volts will be faster than Level 1 and 110, which is true of the Coulomb setup as well, as I understand it.

On the second point, GE managers say the following: "GE has been in the electrical distribution and protection business for over 100 years. As the GE WattStation is a vital part of tomorrow's electrical infrastructure, GE is able to leverage it's existing network of authorized distributors and electrical contractors to install the EV infrastructure - that includes circuit protection equipment, transformers as well as the GE WattStation - to provide a safe and reliable installed system. GE will also leverage our extensive experience in the utility transmission and distribution business to make sure that the GE WattStation is Smart Grid enabled for intelligent integration into today's power grid."

However the competition plays out for each of the companies, the existence of the competition can only be good for the development of a grid adequate to the needs of EV and hybrid drivers. Nissan having announced last year a home-charging program for buyers of its upcoming Leaf, infrastructure is not being neglected. That said, the ability of local distribution transformers to handle the added load from car chargers if plug-in hybrids really catch on remains much in doubt.

Siemens Completes Major Chinese Transmission Line

Siemens reports that it has brought into operation a high-voltage direct-current transmission line connecting the highly industrial Pearl River delta (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong) with hydropower sources 1,500 kilometers to the west. With a transmission capacity of 5,000 MW, the HVDC line in effect obviates the need for up to 5 GW of fossil generation in the Pearl River delta, saving enormously on air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions.

According to Siemens, power is being carried over the line at a record-setting 800 kilovolts, with losses of just 2 percent per 1000 kilometers and an additional 1.5 percent at the transmitting and receiving ends. The line is the second such electricity superhighway Siemens has installed in China to operate at 800 kV. Siemens developed a new "super transformer" for the lines, which it sees as "practically a blueprint for the DII (Desertec Industrial Initiative) desert power project."

Desertec could be a $500 billion project that would involve installing up to 470 GW of generating capacity in the Sahara, consisting of  concentrating solar plants, and transporting most of that power via HVDC lines to Europe. It may sound far-fetched, but if Europe it going to achieve it highly ambitious 2050 goals for renewable electricity generation and carbon emissions cuts, it may be the only way to go.

Tapping the Desert: Can Saharan Sun Really Help Power Europe?

Parts of Europe are already lapping the rest of the world in terms of renewable energy production and commitment, with Germany among the leaders in wind development and Spain holding a similar position in the solar power field. To meet the continent's lofty (relatively speaking) renewable goals, though, a mega-project situated south of the Mediterranean might end up as the most important piece.

The Desertec project, first conceived in 2003, has the following general goal: "Clean power from deserts for a world with 10 billion people." The flagship of that concept is a series of huge concentrating thermal plants in the Sahara Desert and elsewhere around North Africa and the Middle East, with transmission lines bringing the power north into Europe.

The numbers that Desertec can throw out are pretty staggering: by 2050, the projects are capable of generating up to 470,000 megawatts of electricity; only 0.02 percent of the land area in the region will be needed for all of the solar plants; in fact, only one percent of the entire world's desert area, if covered by solar power plants, could power, well, everything.

And now, in spite of an initial estimate that electricity might start flowing from the Sahara within 10 years, recent announcements indicate that number might be cut in half. The first pilot project appears slated for Morocco, and other countries in the region are on board as well.

Of course, any project so massive in scope carries with it a laundry list of pitfalls and potential problems. Transmission of all that electricity is probably exhibit A for such issues, but Desertec doesn't seem concerned. They note that the power loss over high-voltage direct-current transmission lines is about 4 to 5 percent per 1,000 kilometers of transmission; the costs associated with such losses, however, are made up by the remarkably high insolation (solar radiation energy) in the North Africa region, according to Desertec. And in fact, an industry group recently announced preliminary plans for an undersea grid of transmission cables in the Mediterranean to be developed in parallel with Desertec.

Among the other issues are cost - at least 400 billion Euros (about $520 billion) - and the risks associated with high level development in a number of politically unstable countries. But with Europe's 20-percent-by-2020 renewables goal only a decade away, such concerns seem to be taking a back seat. It looks more and more that before too long has passed, the Sahara really will help power Europe.

(Image via DESERTEC Foundation, www.desertec.org)

Smartening the Smart Grid

This year's annual New York press briefing by the Edison Electric Institute, the organization representing investor-owned utilities, naturally was devoted to the smart grid, the hot topic of the day. Most notable, actually, was the absence of anything really new to report, which confirmed expectations that the smart grid will begin to prove itself next year at the earliest--or not.

This was not the first EEI briefing devoted to smart grid prospects. Last year's briefing was devoted almost entirely to the smart meter avalanche, and a year or two before that much was made of Xcel Energy's SmartGridCity experiment in Boulder, Colorado. I reminded EEI president Thomas Kuhn of the Boulder briefing and pointed out that the experiment appears now to have been a failure. Kuhn did not dispute that and said it appears the problem in Boulder was that the target population was just too affluent: Despite the known green-mindedness of Boulderites, a major factor in Xcel's selecting the small city for its smart grid test run, it seems most of them do not care all that much about the modest monetary savings they stand to make from paying attention to electricity usage signals.

That message, not good news for the smart grid, strongly suggests that its success will depend heavily on the quality of customer communications. "Utilities now really need for customers to listen," says Christy Murfitt, senior manager for solutions marketing with Nuance Communications. How do you get ratepayers to pay attention? The main thing is to stress green mindedness and potential monetary savings, says Christy, but appeals to community values and making advantages as tangible as possible--not to mention, where possible, offering rebates--also help.

Nuance, with major utility customers across the United States and Canada, has been showing its clients how to use billing alerts to start educating their customers about peak versus off-peak rates, the major factors causing their bills to go up or down, and how they can best use their major appliances to minimize costs. Though real-time interactive communications based on hour-to-hour rates changes are only starting to be developed, says Christy, payment schemes can be arranged where customers are warned it their usage exceeds pre-agreed-upon thresholds.

Globally, smart grid investments are expected to be about $90 billion this year, according to a recent report. Infrastructure investments, including communications, represent the overwhelming bulk of that, and customer-side investments, mainly smart meters, only about 20 percent. But the customer-oriented expenditures are a fast-growing share and will be critical to whether the smart grid is seen as a success or failure, comments David Cappello, the main author of the SBI report.

However far electricity restructuring, deregulation, and privatization go, electric power will always be seen in the last analysis as a public service. The public has been led to believe that the smart grid will produce monetary savings and carbon cuts, and so, if those gains do not materialize fast enough, many states no doubt will step in and pass laws insisting that utilities produce tangible results.

Supply-Side Climate Policy

With last week's surrender of the White House and Democratic leadership on efforts to enact a cap-and-trade carbon bill, it follows that the entire U.S. effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be on the energy supply side. Though proponents of a carbon tax (as an alternative to cap-and-trade) are hoping for a second chance, that's almost certainly an idle hope--or threat, depending on how you look at it: There's no sign the president or the leadership have the imagination, boldness, and commitment to sell the country on pricing carbon, in whatever form; and nobody expects the president and Democratic leadership to emerge stronger from this fall's midterm congressional elections. (The opposite is the norm is midterms, which almost always favor challengers over incumbents.)

So, if they can't sell cap-and-trade or carbon taxation now, they won't be able to sell it next year or the year after that either. The game is up.

That means that the climate policy we'll have is pretty much the climate policy we've got: A hodgepodge of subsidies and incentives fashioned to stimulate nuclear, renewables, and the smart grid. Instead of putting a uniform price on carbon, so that  electricity customers and their utilities opt to get less of their electricity from coal and more from the most cost-effective lower-carbon alternative (whether natural gas, wind or nuclear), and drivers buy more fuel-efficient and alternative-fuel cars, we're ending up with just the approach Republicans in particular have always said they hated. That is, we're throwing a lot of money at miscellaneous technologies, hoping that at least some of them take off.

A demand-side policy produces sure results: Statistically, we know if we set carbon prices at certain levels, so as to have specific effects on electricity and fossil fuel prices, that predictable greenhouse gas emissions will follow. A demand-side policy tuned to get U.S. emissions back to their 1990 level by 2020, the Obama administration's stated objective, will do just that.

If a melange of supply-side policies somehow produces the equivalent reduction, it will be by dumb luck.

So let's evaluate the odds of the United States' getting lucky and achieving its 2020 goals, in general qualitative terms. The automotive sector can be left out of account, as people are not going to buy electric or hybrid vehicles in large numbers until prices come down radically, and there's no saying just when that might occur, no matter how much is done to subsidize battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure.

Turning to the all-important electricity sector, how much will new nuclear contribute to reducing carbon emissions in this decade? Nothing. Given that ground has yet to be broken for the first new plant to be initiated in a generation, and given that it takes close to ten years to bring a nuclear power plant project to conclusion, we can safely say that there will be no net increase in U.S. nuclear generation by 2020.

How much will solar contribute? Next to nothing. Contrary to the absurd spin in a recent Tech Review, solar electricity is still far from commercial viability. It's destined to remain a niche player as far ahead as one can look.

In terms of significant zero-carbon power sources that can displace fossil-fueled generation, that leaves only wind. It is sure to account for a growing share of the electricity mix and contribute to lower emissions, as fossil generation is taken out of service. But wind growth rates are highly uneven, O&M costs have been mounting, and the best sites may be getting used up. To remedy what it sees as a boom-bust cycle, the industry is pressing for a national renewable energy standard--another awkward supply-side measure (one that produces predictable results by administrative fiat, to be sure, but at completely unpredictable costs).

That leaves the smart grid, a topic so sweeping and complex it deserves and will receive separate treatment. Suffice it to say for now that we won't know for a few years, at the earliest, whether the concept is actually producing hoped-for reductions in energy  use and emissions.

To sum up, if the United States somehow meets its 2020 greenhouse gas production target, it will not be by deliberate design but because of forces largely beyond control of the U.S. government: Specifically, a grassroots anti-coal rebellion that has made it impossible, for all practical purposes, to build a new coal-fired plant in the United States; and shalegas developments, which imply that there may be enough to gas to replace coal very rapidly and on a very large scale.

Huge Wind Farms Coming to Mojave Desert

On the east coast, any mention of a "decade-long battle over a large wind farm" points immediately to Cape Wind and the contentious beginnings of the country's offshore wind energy industry. In California, though, the phrase brings to mind another project in perhaps an equally unlikely spot, the Alta Wind Energy Center in the Mojave Desert foothills.

According to the LA Times, project developer Terra-Gen will break ground today on the project in the Tehachapi Pass in Kern County, after nearly 10 years of permitting, bankrupted companies and concerns over noise and the usual NIMBY-related issues. Alta Wind Energy Center, or AWEC, will consist of a number of sub-projects, but if all are eventually completed it could generate as much as 3,000 megawatts of power. Even just the initial five projects, with 720 MW, could be enough to provide electricity to 200,000 homes.

With hundreds of turbines soon to be spinning in the Mojave, the desert is rapidly becoming the epicenter of renewable energy in the United States. Some areas of the Mojave receive more than twice as much solar radiation as elsewhere in the country, and there are already hundreds of megawatts of installed solar capacity. Some of the biggest proposed solar plants are also sited in the area, like the 300-MW Ivanpah Solar plant. The Mojave Solar Park, when completed in 2011, will become the world's largest solar installation at 553 MW.

As always, placement of large renewable power generating stations in the middle of the desert brings up questions of storage and transmission. Many of the projects, though, are being built near existing transmission infrastructure, and their near-term completion dates suggest the region is already well-equipped to bring the power to customers.

(Image via Alta Wind Energy Center)

All Quiet on the Climate Front

"History does not forgive us our national mistakes [just] because they are explicable in terms of our domestic politics."

So said the famous diplomat and diplomatic historian George F. Kennan. I quoted him in a book about climate science and climate policy five years ago, and his verdict  seems to me more apt than ever before.

We can account for the decision last week of the Democratic leadership to give up on passing a serious climate bill, but it really isn't very interesting (McCain's defection from the cap-and-trade camp, then Lindsay Graham's; the stubborn resistance of coal-state Democrats; a decline in public concern about climate; etc etc). But in the end there's no escaping the conclusion that President Obama simply failed to put his money where his mouth was supposed to be. That is, he did not forcefully explain to the American people why strong action on climate is a moral and practical imperative; and he did not twist the arms he needed to twist to accomplish what he claimed he wanted to accomplish--namely, to restore the United States to a position of real leadership on climate.

Arianna Huffington, whose hugely successful Huff Post has become the go-to place for environmental leaders, conjured Lyndon Johnson's leadership on the voting rights act, easily the most important piece of U.S. legislation since the New Deal. It's no excuse to complain that you don't have the votes, Huffington told an interviewer: Remember, she said, "what Lyndon Johnson told Martin Luther King in March 1965 when they met about the Voting Rights Act, and Martin Luther King went out and the Selma March happened, and suddenly a few months later when had the votes." If Obama doesn't have the votes, he needs to let people know what has to happen for him to get them.

Lee Wasserman, director of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, takes essentially the same line in today's New York Times. "Despite climate change being the greatest challenge of our time, with millions of people facing inundation, starvation and conflicts over scarce resources, the White House directed advocates not to discuss it. At a meeting in April 2009 led by Carol Browner, the White House coordinator of energy and climate policy, administration message mavens told climate bill advocates that, given the polling, they should avoid talking about climate change and focus on green jobs and energy independence.

"Had Lyndon Johnson likewise relied on polling, he would have told the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to talk only about the expanded industry and jobs that Southerners would realize after passage of a federal civil rights act. I could imagine Dr. King’s response."

The global ramifications of the U.S. abdication are enormous. Serious action on climate was deferred at Copenhagen last December because it was generally felt no consensus would be possible until the United States had enacted a strong carbon-reduction bill. That's because, for the last ten years, the other advanced industrial countries have taken serious action to reduce their global greenhouse gas emissions, while the U.S. government has done nothing. Will the advanced industrial countries now recognize that there is no serious prospect of U.S. action, and draw consequences this fall at Cancun?

What matters is whether U.S. political cowardice turns out to be contagious, or whether it's resisted and contained.

GE Challenges Coulomb in EV Charging

General Electric has joined the fray to provide charging stations for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, challenging Coulomb's ChargePoint network, which is deploying electricity pumps in nine U.S. metropolitan areas with support from the stimulus bill. Like the ChargePoint, GE's WattStation is smartly fashioned--in its case by Yves Behar, an internationally known industrial designer based in San Francisco.

Though Coulomb obviously got off the blocks first, GE claims that it station provides faster charges. I await  enlightenment from GE--or readers--as to how that can be the case, as other sources have told me that charging speed is limited by the characteristics of car batteries, not the charging station.

GE says the WattStation is one of 90 ecomagination projects announced since that initiative was launched five years ago. The company is cooperating with Nissan on technologies needed for a "reliable, dynamic, smart-charging infrastructure," and it has put up $200 million to reward innovators coming up with useful ideas for the next-generation grid.

Solar Windows: New Ultra-Thin Cells Generate Power From Artificial Light

Look at any of the glimmering, glass-only skyscrapers in a metropolis near you. Next, imagine that all those windows were coated with invisible solar cells, generating electricity. Even the ones facing north. That's a lot of electricity.

One company is close to releasing a prototype of such a solar window that improves on existing versions with its ability to draw power from artificial sources of light. New Energy Technologies, based in Maryland, has managed to create arrays of solar cells that are only one-tenth of a micrometer thick; each individual cell is smaller across than a grain rice, and they're gathered in groups of 20 that are coated onto the glass to create a see-through solar window.

They are far from the first to create a transparent solar surface. In recent tests, though, the company reports that their cells - an "organic" cell made from what they call "hydrogen-carbon based materials" - outperformed other solar materials in artificial lighting conditions, including a 10-fold greater output power density than thin-film amorphous-silicon, another possibility for ultra-thin solar generation.

"One of the biggest issues with today’s solar products is their dependency on direct sunlight, which our cells have demonstrated the potential capacity to overcome," said Meetesh V. Patel, the president and CEO of New Energy Technologies, in a press release.

Of course, the cost of such windows may prove to be prohibitive, at least in the near term. A call to the company to ask about those costs has yet to be returned.

Image via Alvesgaspar/Wikimedia Commons

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