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New Opacity in Global Warming Slowdown

A group led by top atmospheric geochemist Susan Solomon has found that higher aerosol levels during the first decade of this century may account at least in part for why global warming has been slower than climate models predicted on the basis of greenhouse gas buildup. Aerosols, which can be projected into the atmosphere from both natural sources like volcanoes and human sources like coal-fired power plants, shield the Earth from incoming solar radiation. They wash out of the atmosphere quickly, however, compared with most greenhouse gases, and so their effect is relatively short-lived.

An earlier paper by another Solomon group found that lower concentrations of stratospheric water vapor have been another factor in slowing the rate of global warming. That paper, which appeared early last year, indicated that concentrations probably increased between 1980 and 2000, on the other hand, adding to the warming trend.

The Solomon paper, published in this week's Science magazine online, estimates the radiative impact of higher aerosol levels in the last decade at minus 0.1 watt per square meter. That is enough to reduce the amount of expected warming by 25 percent. The findings are based on direct atmospheric measurements, and the paper makes no attempt to determine the natural versus human sources of the recent aerosol buildup. Its main message indeed is that aerosol levels are "persistently variable."

To put the findings in a very long perspective, during the Cretaceous period—120 to 90 million years ago, when Earth turned into a "hothouse," as the current issue of Scientific American puts it—warming took place at an average rate of 0.00025 degrees C per 100 years. During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, about 56 million years ago, the warming rate was 1,000 times as abrupt, at 0.025 per 100 years. The current rate is 1–4 degrees per 100 years, at least 400 times as high as in PETM.

Rooftop Solar Panels Double as Cooling Agents

Energy Secretary Steven Chu has famously touted the energy-saving benefits to painting rooftops white. This works by reflecting the sun's energy away from a building, helping to keep it cool and requiring less energy to do so. It turns out, though, that it isn't just white paint that can cool your roof. Solar panels can do it too.

Research published recently in Solar Energy suggests that daytime ceiling temperatures under rooftop solar photovoltaic systems are lower than under exposed rooftops. In the buildings the researchers studied in San Diego, it was 2.5 degrees K cooler (about 4.5 degrees F). At night, this situation was reversed, with ceiling temperatures under the solar panels registering higher than under exposed rooftop, which the authors said suggests "insulating properties" of PV systems.

Though the study's measurements occurred over a few days in April, modeling suggested that the overall reduction in cooling load would be 38 percent. In the winter, there would be no advantage or disadvantage to the panels in terms of heating load.

This seems to be one of the rare occasions where ancillary effects of a positive technology are also positive. We install solar panels on rooftops to help lessen carbon emissions, and it appears that we actually reduce energy needs at the same time.

And if we start combining some of this knowledge, there is some amazing potential here. The white roof idea that Secretary Chu espouses would, in ideal circumstances, save enough energy to equal taking the world's cars off the roads for 18 years. Then, consider some recent work in New York: about two-thirds of city rooftops could accommodate solar panels, with potential to generate an incredible 5,847 MW of power. If you mix in the cooling potential given New York's well-known heat island effect, and rooftop solar starts to look better and better.

(Image via murphyz)

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What's the Score in Utility-Scale Solar?

Among the two or three people who follow this blog closely I'm probably known as a skeptic about utility-scale solar--that is to say, about when "grid parity" will be reached in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and electricity from photovoltaics will be able to compete, without subsidies, with natural gas, nuclear, and wind.

When I visited a small PV generating plant on the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border several years ago, the economics of the project turned out to be so dubious, its designers refused to tell me how much the plant had actually cost to build. Executives at Applied Materials convinced me that making and selling PV manufacturing machinery is a very good business as long as subsidies last, but left me unconvinced it will be a viable business without subsidies any time soon.

That said, it seems only fair to note, 18 months later, that a lot of utility-scale projects are being built in the United States and that a great many more are on the books. According to a list compiled by the Solar Energy Industries Association, PV plants with a combined capacity of close to 200 MW have come into operation since the beginning of 2010, and plants totaling another 356 W are under construction. Some of the utility-scale generating plants such as Florida Power & Light's 25-MW DeSoto Solar Energy Center (above) are quite large indeed. The biggest so far is Pacific Gas and Electric's 55 MW plant in Boulder City, Nevada.

Looking to the future, utility-scale PV projects with a combined capacity of 18 GW are in development, and there are plans for concentrating thermal projects adding up to more than 9 GW. To put that in perspective, even allowing for the fact that solar plants generate electricity only about a third of the time, if all the utility-scale solar were to be built, combined central solar capacity would be equivalent to about 10 nuclear power plants--not trivial.

But it seems to me a fair guess that most of those plants will not actually be built. In many cases environmental considerations--land use, availability of water to clean panels, transmission connections--will doom them. At both the Federal and state levels subsidies may be erratic. By one recent count, 29 states and the District of Columbia have adopted Renewable Portfolio Standards,  20 with special requirements for solar. But in many cases those solar "carve-outs" or "set-asides" include caps on permissible costs, which utilities and their contractors have been unable to meet. PV costs remain very high compared to competitors, and of course the competition--above all natural gas, selling at record-low prices--is a moving target.

The papers are full of stories quoting experts to the effect that PV is on the cusp of a technological breakthrough and near grid parity. I still don't see it.

India Uncovers One of World's Biggest Uranium Deposits

A uranium mine in southern India is home to 49,000 tonnes of ore, and reports suggest it could actually house three times that amount. According to India's Secretary of the Department of Atomic Energy, Srikumar Banerjee, that would make it the largest uranium mine in the world.

India currently has just under 5 gigawatts of installed nuclear power capacity, though it plans to increase that to 20 GW by 2020 and to 63 GW by 2050. The new uranium deposit could be an important piece in these expansion plans. Currently, India doesn't rank near the top of the list when it comes to uranium mining.

In 2010, more than 53,000 tonnes of uranium were mined around the world, with the bulk of that coming from Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia. There is apparently enough proven uranium in the world to last the world's nuclear reactors at least a century.

Though it rarely gets the attention focused on other parts of the nuclear power industry, uranium mining does carry its own environmental and health risks. In the U.S., which in 2010 mined 1,660 tonnes of uranium, some controversy still swirls around the issue. In June, the Department of the Interior extended a moratorium on mining in a huge area surrounding the Grand Canyon. The region as a whole contains upwards of 150,000 tonnes of uranium.

(Image via Andrew Silver/USGS)

France Goes Offshore: Huge Wind Investment in World's Nuclear Capital

Only a few weeks ago we noted a trend-bucking investment into nuclear power by France, while the rest of Europe seems poised to phase out the always-controversial energy source. France, which gets about 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, isn't just sitting still on other energy options: the government recently announced a $14.3 billion tender offer to build 1200 offshore wind turbines to the north and west of the country.

 The government will now accept bids to build wind farms in five different offshore areas, with a goal of bringing them online between 2015 and 2020. France hopes to generate 23 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020; it currently gets less than 13 percent of power from renewables.

Though France is standing by nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, the country clearly sees an upside in significant diversification of its energy menu. And interestingly, so does French nuclear powerhouse company Areva: the company has partnered with Iberdrola Renewables in an effort to build some of the new offshore wind farms. Other energy company alliances have also been formed to bid on the massive wind projects.

(Image via rodonnelly)

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Corn Ethanol Is Dead, Long Live Corn Ethanol

The United States is overwhelmingly the world's largest producer and exporter of corn (or maise, as most other people in the world call it). It grows about two fifths of the globe's total, more than twice as much as the next largest grower (China) and almost six times as much as the European Union's 27 countries combined. It accounts for more than half of corn exports, Argentina running a distant second.

So it's of greater than merely parochial interest that last year, for the first time, more of the U.S. corn crop went for the manufacture of ethanol fuel than for livestock feed, traditionally its main use by far. About 40 percent of U.S. corn now goes to ethanol, as Ken Cook of the Environmental Working Group noted on National Public Radio this week.

It's a sign of the fuel's growing maturity that ending direct U.S. support for ethanol production is under serious consideration. Essentially unrelated factors--the desire and need to cut Federal spending, a desperate search for bipartisanship, rising food prices, and (not least) the viability of the corn ethanol industry--are conspiring to end direct government support for the industry.  On June 16 the Senate voted to end both the 45 cent subsidy for every gallon of corn ethanol blended into U.S. gasoline and the 54 cent per gallon import tariff protecting  U.S. industry from Brazilian producers of sugarcane ethanol. Though the measure will not directly become law, it's being pretty universally interpreted as a clear sign that Congress will vote to end the subsidy and import duty by the end of this year.

The U.S. corn ethanol industry is facing the prospect with remarkable equanimity. That's partly because it will continue to benefit from Federal support, mainly in the form of a mandate--the renewable fuels standard--requiring that 7.5 billion barrels of ethanol be blended into automotive fuel in 2012, versus 4 billion in 2006. And it's partly too because corn ethanol is now being manufactured at a cost of $2-.2.50 per gallon, competitive or very nearly competitive with gasoline at current world prices.

To be sure, the case for ethanol has been overstated in terms of net energy and carbon-reduction benefits, by comparison with gasoline. Despite that, a general consensus continues to prevail--and not just in the United States--that substitutes for depleting oil must somehow be found, even if costs are somewhat higher and climate benefits minimal. Accordingly, the ethanol industry is here to stay.

Many dozens of plants are now producing corn ethanol in the United States. The largest single company in the business, POET LLC, operates 27 and produces 1.7 billion gallons per year.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Energy extended a $105 million loan guarantee to POET for expansion of a pilot cellulosic ethanol plant in Emmetsburg, Iowa, which will manufacture ethanol from corncobs, husks, and leaves. It is the first such Federal loan guarantee for production of cellulosic ethanol and thus represents a major milestone.

Another milestone this month: Shell Oil's announcement that its Brazilian joint venture Raizen will invest $7 billion in the next five years to double production of sugarcane ethanol. With Petrobras and BP making sizable investments in sugarcane ethanol as well, Brazil is poised to take advantage of the opening of the U.S. biofuels market.

In the short run, to be sure, Brazil is not expected to be a major factor in the U.S. market: With domestic demand high and current production unexpectedly low, Brazilian ethanol prices are much higher than U.S. prices. That's yet another reason why U.S. Congress is almost sure to decide to save the Treasury $6 billion a year by ending subsidies and tariffs.

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Eastern U.S. Coal Emissions to Get a Scrubbing

It's mid-July, so hot it's hard to think straight, get angry, or even keep anything in focus. What better time to issue controversial clean air rules? That's what happened several years ago when a Federal appeals court threw out the Environmental Protection Agency's plan to clean up eastern U.S. coal plant emissions—and, more or less concurrently, the Bush Adminstration's EPA said it would not regulate greenhouse gas emissions, even though the Supreme Court had invited it to do so.

Now EPA has reformulated its so-called Cross State Air Pollution Rule, presumably in a way that's more bullet-proof than the Bush administration's 2005 version that was rejected in court. EPA said the new regulations might save as many as 34,000 lives per year, a number that seems to err slightly on the side of oversell, as the best current estimate of total annual U.S. fatalities from coal pollution is about 20,000. Still, EPA makes a persuasive case that large public health benefits will greatly outweigh the relatively modest costs of compliance, which it puts at about $2.4 billion per year.

About 1,000 power plants in the eastern half of the country will be affected by the new rules, which requires them to cut emissions of sulfur dioxide by 73 percent and nitrogen oxide by 54 percent by 2014, from 2005 levels. Coal-burning utilities are complaining not only about the projected costs, but the accelerated pace at which new regulations are being issued. Some of the new cross-state rules come into affect next Jan. 1.

Yet that is not likely to deter EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson from also issuing by the end of this year regulations affecting greenhouse gas emissions. A recent Supreme Court decision appears to have reaffirmed its position that EPA may regulate carbon under the Clean Air Act and Clean Air Act Amendments, even though it's widely acknowledged the legislation was written without global warming in mind and is not ideally suited to carbon regulation.

New Mapping Tool Shows Tidal Power Potential

A group at Georgia Tech University has created a database-driven mapping tool aimed at illustrating the tidal power potential around the coastlines of the entire United States. The map was validated by the Department of Energy and is now available to all.

There aren't yet any major tidal power installations in the United States, but according to the DOE, the map indicates strong potential in both the Northeast and the Northwest. Some related projects do exist, such as turbines under the East River in New York City. Atlantis Resources Corporation, which makes a double-turbine type of tidal power device, has several projects under development around the world, including in India.

And as with any type of energy, assessing tidal power's practical generation potential is the first step. Though some reports have suggested a global capacity of 90 gigawatts and a U.S. potential equaling 15 percent of total electricity requirements, assessments on a more local, project-specific level will now be much easier with the Georgia Tech map.

As the team who created it wrote in their documentation, "Tidal energy is one of the fastest-growing emerging technologies in the renewable sector and is set to make a major contribution to carbon-free energy generation."

Image via Georgia Tech/DOE

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More Smart Meter Pushback

The United Kingdom's National Audit Office is predicting that the cost of delivering smart meters to 50 million British homes by 2020 will be considerably higher than the government projects and that it will be harder than expected to induce the desired changes in consumer behavior.

"For the money spent to provide value, we all have to change the way we behave. It is not clear how the department will stimulate this behavior change. And as technology changes, the department will have to be properly flexible to respond with up-to-date technology for the smart meters. These uncertainties can drive up costs more than planned," commented Margaret Hopf, a member of Parliament who chairs the parliamentary Committee of Public Accounts.

Separately, British citizens were also found to be broadly skeptical about smart metering costs and benefits, according to a survey conducted by The Economist magazine for the technology provider T-Systems, a subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom that has offices in California and India.

The promise of smart metering is that it will help utilities make the grid more reliable and help customers save electricity and money. Hence the multiplicity of new products being offered by major suppliers like Landis+Gyr [photo above]. Yet adverse reactions to smart metering have turned out to be surprisingly widespread in terms of both geography and concerns. For example: The Dutch have worried about home security as utilities gather more detailed information on domestic energy use, Californians about radiation from wireless communications devices in meters, and Texans about unexpected increases in electricity bills.

Inasmuch as smart metering is but the first phase of global efforts to integrate advanced computing and communications into traditional power grids, the broad pushback it's encountered indicates that the smart grid may have a tough row to hoe.

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Troubled Kabul Power Plant

This is part of IEEE Spectrum's ongoing coverage of Japan's earthquake and nuclear emergency. For more details on how Fukushima Dai-1's nuclear reactors work and what has gone wrong so far, see our explainer.

Spectrum executive editor Glenn Zorpette, who has developed something of a subspecialty with muckraking accounts of poorly conceived electric power projects in poorly chosen war zones, has an op-ed in today's New York Times about the newly built Tarakhil power plant outside Kabul. Zorpette compares the the Afghanistan track record of the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), which was responsible for the plant, unfavorably with that of the U.S. Corps of Army Engineers. (In an AID photo [left], the outgoing U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Karl W. Eikenberry, is seen at the plant.)

Zorpette's investigative work in Afghanistan builds on earlier accounts by Pratap Chatterjee, whose work has been published by CorpWatch (which does what it says) and by the Institute of Policy Studies, a left-leaning research institute in Washington, D.C.

Zorpette's earlier investigation of similar power problems in Iraq was honored with a Grand Neal business journalism award and with a National Magazine Award reporting nomination.

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