When a sexy silver Ferrari F430 Spider has “Bio Fuel”
emblazoned on the doors in bright green, you know the
world has changed. Yet that was the sight at a major
auto show early this year. As one industry commentator
put it, “Green is the new black.”
Consider that Europe is debating not whether to cut
carbon emissions from vehicles but simply when to do it
and by how
much. The average new car on Europe's roads
now emits roughly 160 grams of carbon dioxide per
kilometer; the European Commission proposed last year to
lower that to 130 g/km by 2012. But Europe's carmakers
seem likely to have missed a voluntary 2008 target of
140 g/km.
This issue has pitted French and Italian
carmakers—who specialize in small, fuel-efficient
cars—against German manufacturers, who could see many
of their luxury and sports-car products become
problematic. Now a staggered set of weight-based limits
may be instituted, and the deadline may be pushed all
the way to 2015.
Carbon emissions are becoming a standard automotive
benchmark in Europe and parts of Asia, but North
American car buyers remain almost entirely unaware of
them. To reflect the global discussion, IEEE Spectrum
has included whatever numbers on vehicle
CO2 emissions we could obtain
from the manufacturers.
Many of this year's innovations center on
combustion-engine technology—Ford's EcoBoost
turbocharged gasoline direct-injection engines, Mazda's
tiny Miller-cycle engine, BMW's centrally mounted twin
turbochargers. Then there's the diesel engine, which
appears set for a revival following the fuel-economy
regulations enacted late last year in the United States.
Both European and Japanese carmakers are preparing to
launch diesels in North America over the next two to
five years. Even though the engine requires elaborate
and costly emissions controls—like the Mercedes-Benz
Bluetec system—to trap the great number of fine
particulates diesels emit, their lower fuel usage and
CO2 emissions are unquestioned.
Will U.S. buyers go for diesels? No one knows. It may
be the industry's biggest open question.
The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle is another puzzle.
General Motors is expressing quiet confidence that
lithium-ion batteries will clear the various hurdles
needed for a late-2010 launch of its Chevrolet Volt
extended-range electric car, projected to have a 64-km
range on electric power alone. A plug-in version of GM's
Saturn Vue Two-Mode Hybrid sport utility is due on
roughly the same schedule, with a 16-km range. Toyota,
meanwhile, abruptly changed its tune on plug-ins,
launching a test fleet of Priuses converted to plug-in
operation. It's a conversion that private customers have
been ordering, one car at a time, at small garages
across the United States and in other countries.
The trend extends even to China, where horrific air
pollution and increasing dependence on imported oil
threaten to muffle the country's economic boom. BYD Co.,
a Chinese battery company that claims to supply
two-thirds of the world's nickel-cadmium batteries and
30 percent of its lithium-ion mobile-phone batteries,
started making cars in 2002. In January it demonstrated
a plug-in hybrid sedan with a claimed electric range of
96 km, which the company said would be offered for sale
in small numbers—in China only—by the end of this
year. That said, fewer than 200 plug-in hybrid cars are
on the world's roads.
Finally, the industry is doing something about the
weight of its products. Ford's EcoBoost V6 engine, for
example, provides the power and torque of a much larger
V8 with better fuel economy, lower emissions, and less
weight. Even so, a fully accessorized EcoBoost weighs
about half as much as an entire Tata Nano, from India,
which at US $2500 is cheaper than the options packages
for many cars. That low price, and planned production in
the millions, make the Nano easily the most important
launch of the year. It is feared by the global auto
industry and eagerly awaited by millions of Indian
families, who now often travel in groups of four or five
on a single scooter.